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D
Regulated utilities

Dominion Energy DCF model

Virginia, South Carolina and Contracted Energy volumes delivered and revenue per MWh.

Dominion Energy original Income Statement worksheet excerpt showing business drivers, highlighted inputs and modeled years
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Included worksheets

Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowDCF Valuation

Dominion Energy Excel edition

Virginia, South Carolina and Contracted Energy volumes delivered and revenue per MWh. Change the highlighted assumptions to explore the relationship between operating performance, cash flow and value.

Inside the workbook

Edition detailIncluded
Valuation date5 October 2026
Historical periodsFY2023A, FY2024A, FY2025A
Modeled periodsFY2026E–FY2035E
Financial currencyUSD in millions
FormatEditable .xlsx · Four worksheets · 59.2 KB
PriceUS$19.99 for 12 months of company-model access

Historical figures recorded in this edition

These are cached historical entries in the uploaded Dominion Energy workbook, dated 5 October 2026. Fiscal-year labels and units follow the file; they are not live data. The source annotations below are the model author’s references, rather than an independent audit of every figure.

Historical entries in this edition · USD millions · rounded to two decimals
MetricFY2023AFY2024AFY2025A
Total revenue14,393.0014,459.0016,506.00
Operating income (EBIT)3,414.003,247.004,414.00
Net income1,962.002,034.002,998.00

How this edition builds the forecast

Virginia, South Carolina and Contracted Energy volumes delivered and revenue per MWh. The first forecast period is FY2026E. The editable assumptions distinguish the operating driver from the reasoning used to forecast it.

Electricity delivered (million MWh = TWh)

Mechanism: Volume: growth % reached by end of stage

Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: 4.0% · FY27E: 5.0% · FY28E-FY30E: 5.0% · FY31E-FY35E: 1.5%

Read this driver’s forecast rationale

Deliveries rose 6% in 2025 and 5% in 2024 and 4% in 1H26 (51.2 vs 49.1 million MWh; SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31, MD&A). Data centres were 28% of Virginia Power's electricity sales in 2025 (26% in 2024) and PJM projects 5.4% average annual peak load growth for the DOM zone over the next ten years (SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23, Item 1, Dominion Energy Virginia). Assumption: +4% in FY26 (2025 included a cold winter, heating degree days +18%) and +5% a year in FY27-FY30 as contracted data-centre load connects, fading to +1.5% by FY35 as the build-out ends.

Read the workbook’s historical source annotation

SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23, MD&A, Dominion Energy Virginia operating statistics: electricity delivered 100.2 / 94.5 / 89.9 million MWh (2025 / 2024 / 2023)

Revenue per MWh delivered ($ per MWh)

Mechanism: Price: growth % reached by end of stage

Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: 15.5% · FY27E: 1.2% · FY28E-FY30E: 5.0% · FY31E-FY35E: 2.6%

Read this driver’s forecast rationale

Revenue per MWh was $106.5 / $108.3 / $118.2 in 2023-25. 1H26 segment revenue rose 30% on 4% more volume: +$814mm of fuel-related revenue, +$474mm to recover non-fuel riders and +$282mm from the 2025 Biennial Review (SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31, MD&A). The Virginia Commission approved a $566mm base rate increase from January 2026 and a further $210mm from January 2027, with a 9.80% ROE (SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23, Note 13); the FY26-30 Dominion Energy Virginia capital plan of $55.8bn (SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23, MD&A Capital Expenditures) is recovered mainly through riders, so revenue per unit of rate base rather than per MWh is what is anchored. Assumption: FY26 +15.5% lands total revenue within 5% of consensus (FY26 $18.2bn, which would need a second half of only $8.7bn, +0.4% on 2H25, after a first half of $9.5bn that was +20%, so consensus looks stale; FY27 $19.4bn) and assumes the Commission approves recovery of current-period fuel only: Virginia Power's May 2026 fuel filing proposes either recovering $3.8bn over July 2026-June 2027 (+$1.9bn fuel revenue) or securitising the $1.0bn under-recovery (SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31, Note 12), which is not yet decided; fuel revenue is pass-through, so it moves revenue but not margin. FY27 +1.2% (the $210mm base increase from January 2027 and rider growth, partly offset by fuel revenue annualising); rising to +5.0% by FY30 so that Virginia revenue grows with the capital plan: operating income stays at about 7% of opening net property, plant and equipment (7.2% in FY26, 7.0% in FY30, 6.8% in FY35), i.e. new rate base earns about what the existing base earns, in line with operating EPS growth of 5%-7% a year through 2030 (Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99), filed 2026-02-23); then fading to +2.6% by FY35 as the build-out ends.

Electricity delivered (million MWh = TWh)

Mechanism: Volume: growth % reached by end of stage

Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: 1.0% · FY27E: 1.0% · FY28E-FY30E: 1.0% · FY31E-FY35E: 0.5%

Read this driver’s forecast rationale

Deliveries grew about 1% a year in 2024 and 2025 and 1% in 1H26 (10.9 vs 10.8 million MWh; SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31, MD&A); average electric customer accounts grew 1% to 818 thousand in 2025 (SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23). Assumption: +1% a year through FY30, then +0.5%, as the service territory grows modestly.

Read the workbook’s historical source annotation

SEC Form 10-K for the year ended 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23, MD&A, Dominion Energy South Carolina operating statistics: electricity delivered 22.2 / 22.0 / 21.9 million MWh (2025 / 2024 / 2023)

The later forecast years contain modeling judgments. The historical labels, financial-period dates and valuation date are separate from any stock-price observation; this page does not supply a current market quote.

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Read the current version’s notes

USD in millions, fiscal year ending December 31. Base case: Dominion Energy valued as a standalone, rate-regulated utility, ignoring the proposed merger with NextEra Energy (Agreement and Plan of Merger dated 2026-05-15: each Dominion share converts into 0.8138 NextEra Energy shares plus a pro rata share of $360mm of cash; approved by Dominion shareholders on 2026-09-03 - SEC Form 8-K filed 2026-05-18 (merger agreement with NextEra Energy); SEC Form 8-K filed 2026-09-03 (results of the special meeting of shareholders)). The share price used for comparison may therefore reflect the deal terms rather than standalone value, and no assumption has been tuned to it. FY2026E and FY2027E revenue are set near analyst consensus; later years are this model's own assumptions, each explained in the last column.

Dates and descriptions reflect this workbook’s notes. They are not a claim of independent audit or a guarantee that its forecasts will occur.

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